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110 Wall Street
New York, NY 10005
212.785.9700 |
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201 E. Kennedy Blvd
Tampa, FL 33602
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60 Park Place
Newark, NJ 07102
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70-20 Austin Street
Forest Hills, NY 11375
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Multinational Bancorp Center
6805 Ayala Avenue
15th Floor, Makati City
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KBL Eisner, LLP |
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750 Third Avenue
New York, NY 10017
212.891.8040 |
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SUMMARY
OPTIMISM INDEX
The Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.8 points, falling to 88.3 (1986=100), 7.3 points higher than the survey’s second lowest reading reached in March (the lowest reading was 80.1 in 1980:2). In the 1980-82 recession period, the Index was below 90 in only one quarter and quickly surged to a record high level in early 1983. In this recession, the Index has been below 90 for six quarters, indicative of the severity of this downturn.
LABOR MARKETS
In November small business owners reported a decline in average employment per firm of 0.58 workers reported during the prior three months, a big improvement from May ‘s record loss of 1.26 workers per firm - but still a loss of jobs. Nine percent of the owners increased employment by an average of 2.3 workers per firm, but 21 percent reduced employment an average of 4.2 workers per firm (seasonally adjusted). The “job generating machine” is still in reverse. Sales are not picking up, so survival requires continuous attention to costs – and labor costs loom large. But, job reductions are fading and job creation could cross the “0” line by the end of the year.
CAPITAL SPENDING
The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months dropped one point to 44 percent of all firms, revisiting the record low reading set in September (data first collected in 1979). Capital spending is on the sideline. Plans to make capital expenditures over the next few months fell one point to 16 percent, revisiting the 35 year record low. Consumer spending is weak and there is nothing on the table in Washington to make owners more optimistic about the future, a recipe for depressed expectations and spending plans.
INVENTORIES AND SALES
The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher sales in the past three months remained negative at negative 31 percent, unchanged from October and only three points above the record low set in March and revisited in June and July. The net percent of owners expecting real sales gains improved two points to a negative two percent of all owners, still negative but 27 points better than the March record low level. Small business owners continued to liquidate inventories and weak sales trends gave little reason to order new stocks. A net negative 25 percent of all owners reported gains in inventory stocks, one point better than October and only two points better than the record low of negative 27 recorded each month from April through July. For all firms, a net negative two percent (a one point improvement) reported stocks too low. Plans to add to inventories (on purpose) were unchanged at a negative three percent of all firms (seasonally adjusted). Only a pick-up in sales will turn this around.
This survey was conducted in November 2009. A sample of 3,938 small-business owners/members was drawn. Eight hundred twenty-five (825) usable responses were received – a response rate of 21 percent |
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