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Media | What the Crisis on Wall Street Means for Your Street
 
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Image What the Crisis on Wall Street Means for Your Street
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By Sanjay Singla, CPA
Partner, KBL, LLP
Certified Public Accountants


With the financial markets moving and shifting into different paradigms, we at KBL have been speaking with many of our clients, associates, and internally to discover what all of this means and what one should do in these uncertain times. We have chosen to consolidate all of our conversations in a question and answer format we call “What the Crisis on Wall Street Means for Your Street” that we hope will help shed light on what is going on in the financial markets and provide suggestions to help lead you through this dark time in our history.

1. How did this financial crisis happen and who is responsible for this mess?

Wall Street crisis is culmination of 28 years of deregulation. No one cog in the federal government's machine of financial regulation let down the country by failing to prevent the latest shakeout on Wall Street. The entire system did. The job of regulators is that when the party's in full swing, make sure the partygoers drink responsibly. Instead, they let everyone drink as much as they wanted and then handed them the car keys. One Wall Street bank, Lehman Brothers, filed for bankruptcy protection and another, Merrill Lynch, sought comfort by selling itself to Bank of America for $50 billion. Earlier this year, the government helped enable the sale of faltering investment bank Bear Stearns to J.P. Morgan Chase, and more recently took over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Such troubles were supposed to have been prevented, or at least mitigated, by regulatory systems that the nation began to put in place after the banking system collapsed at the start of the Great Depression.

Many banks at the time were badly wounded by their personal and financial ties to securities trading. The 1933 Glass-Steagall Act, and later the 1956 Bank Holding Company Act, mandated the separation of banks, insurance companies and securities firms.

Those and many other federal laws stabilized the banking and securities markets, but by the 1970s, a stumbling U.S. economy led to a change in America's political-economic values. Ronald Reagan led a movement that came to power in 1980 proclaiming faith in free markets and mistrust of government. That conservative philosophy has dominated America for the past 28 years.

Even after taxpayers had to rescue deregulated savings and loans, or S&Ls, with a $200 billion bailout in the late 1980s, the push to loosen regulation paused only briefly. In 1999, President Clinton signed the Financial Services Modernization Act, which tore down Glass-Steagall's reforms by removing the walls separating banks, securities firms and insurers.

Under President Clinton and his successor, the government became eager to promote home ownership. Interest rates were low, the market grew for loans to borrowers with weak credit and private-sector mortgage bonds boomed. About 38 percent of those bonds were backed by subprime loans. They are at the root of today's financial crisis.

A generation ago, banks, credit unions and S&Ls issued home mortgages that they retained on their books as an asset. The lenders had a stake in receiving full repayment of the loans from creditworthy borrowers.

But in recent years, mortgages began to be sold to firms that cobbled the loans together to create mortgage-backed securities, or mortgage bonds. Loans to the least creditworthy borrowers carried the highest risk but gave the highest returns, so banks and other institutional investors bought loads of them. Except no one was policing the creditworthiness of the borrowers.

The process helped more people buy homes, and a booming mortgage-bond market, led by investment banks, was in full swing by 2005.

When borrowers who had secured loans with adjustable interest rates, however, found their rates going up, many were unable to pay. That meant that holders of bonds backed by these mortgages were stuck with securities worth much less than their face value — or nothing at all. That created a solvency crisis for the banks that loaded up on them — and virtually all of them had.

Some regulatory agencies issued warnings, but credit-rating agencies still said that the bonds — and the banks that issued and bought them — were safe. It turns out, of course, that many were not.

With Congress eager to expand home-ownership, regulators felt pressure to deal lightly with mortgage loans to low-income households, and virtually no one proposed national regulation of non-bank lenders or mortgage brokers.

Had regulators questioned sub-prime lending, they would have been harshly criticized

Warning signs began to appear. At least nine federal agencies oversee some part of the mortgage market, and from 2004 to 2007, at least three had issued warnings about risky loans.

Still, none was willing to end the financial revelry. It was another example of an asset bubble that appears periodically. An economy will disregard risk, and when people see another investor making money by investing in an asset, others will throw caution to the wind. No one wanted to kill the goose that laid the golden egg.


2. Just how does this crisis affect those living on Main Street?

The truth is that Wall Street's crisis, which kicked off September 15th with the fall of Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and AIG, is already affecting Main Street

Credit Card Limits Reduced

Even if you have a high credit score and a blemish-free payment history, your credit limit may have been cut. American Express recently cut the credit for 10% of its cardholders, but most banks have reduced credit limits for some customers since last summer. If you are making a big purchase or use your credit card for unplanned expenses, be sure to check your limit. There are big penalties for going over it.

Student Loans Yanked

It's not just banks and mortgage lenders that are suffering. The student loan industry is in crisis. Private lenders are going under and some state agencies and large banks, including Bank of America and Wachovia, have stopped issuing student loans. Some schools are being more forgiving on payment schedules as students scramble to secure funding. Call the student aid office for help, but expect less favorable terms than prior years.

Money Market Mutual Funds Safer

To stave off investor panic after one prominent money market fund "broke the buck," or posted a small decline in value, the government has promised it would cover any losses. Not all funds are covered in the new program, so check with your fund company if you are worried. With this added protection, money market funds are now just as safe as bank savings accounts.

More Incentives to Open Bank Accounts

One result of the credit crisis is that banks are trying their darndest to attract more deposits. Chase is currently offering $125 (at least in New York City) to open an account with direct deposit. Citibank is beefing up its "Thank You" rewards program. Refer a friend, and Bank of America will give you both $25. Remember, low fees and high interest on savings are more important than one-time incentives when choosing a bank

Easier to Get a Loan With Good Credit

Don't forget, even in the current crisis, banks want to stay in business. So they are continuing to make loans to borrowers with good credit records and plenty of assets. There are good deals on home equity lines of credit and businesses have found short-term loans easier to come by since the bailout talks began.

Harder to Get Loan if You Have Weak Credit

If you have a tarnished credit history, don't expect to get a loan any time soon -- even if you're willing to pay high interest rates. Banks continue to tighten their lending standards as the credit crisis deepens. If you need to rebuild your credit score, a good way to start is by using a secured credit card (one where you have cash in a bank account to back up purchases).

More Store Deals Ahead of a Weak Holiday

With the economy slowing and family budgets tightening, retailers are anticipating a tough holiday sales season ahead. So they are layering on the deals early. Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving when the holiday shopping season kicks off, should provide a bonanza of deals. Consumer electronics will offer particularly good buys. Look for similar opportunities during Christmas and in the new year.

Investment Returns Are Down

The stock market has taken it on the chin in recent weeks. But sharp sell-offs on bad news have been followed by major relief rallies a day or two later. The worst thing you can do is panic and sell at the bottom. Instead, make sure your investments are diversified and use the upswings to sell some stocks if you realize now that you've taken on more risk than you can handle.

3. Will the bailout work?

As the U.S. government steps to the center of the financial crisis, crafting plans to take ownership of up to $700 billion worth of bad mortgages, a pair of simple questions rises to the fore: Will this intervention finally be enough to restore order? And what will this grand rescue cost U.S. taxpayers?

The Treasury Department, as overseer of the American financial system, has in recent weeks unleashed an astonishing array of initiatives in a bid to stave off catastrophe. It took over the country's largest mortgage finance companies and put untold billions of taxpayer dollars on the line to prop up other lenders.

Now, although the details are still being worked out, the government is dispensing with rescuing one company at a time, and instead taking on a vast pile of bad debt in one gulp. If it all comes to pass - if Uncle Sam becomes the repository for the radioactive leftovers of bad real estate bets - will the crisis lift? Will the fear that has kept banks clinging to their dollars, starving the economy of capital, give way to free-flowing credit?

There are many skeptics of the Treasury's proposal, though there is wide agreement that some kind of broad intervention is necessary.

But significant skepticism confronts the initiative. Under a proposal circulating, the Treasury could spend as much as $700 billion to buy mortgage-linked investments, and then sell what it can as it works out the messy details of the loans. But no one really knows what this cosmically complex web of finance will be worth, making the final price tag for the taxpayer unknowable. One may just as well try to predict the weather three years from Tuesday.

Some question the prudence of adding to the nation's overall debt at a time when the Treasury relies on the largess of foreigners to cover the bills. Most broadly, what are the longer-term costs of the government stepping in to restore order after so many wealthy financiers have become so much wealthier through what now seem like reckless bets on real estate - bets now covered with public dollars?

Also, what message does that send to the next investment bank caught up in the next speculative bubble and contemplating the risks of jumping in while wondering who is ultimately on the hook if things go awry?

Many economists say such questions are beside the point. The United States is gripped by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

When the Treasury secretary, the Federal Reserve chairman and leaders on Capitol Hill proclaimed their intentions to take over bad debts, the prognosis for the American financial system was sliding from grim toward potentially apocalyptic.

The government's plans are hashed out, no hallelujah chorus is wafting across Washington, down Wall Street or through the glistening condos of the United States. Too many households are having trouble paying their mortgages. Too many people are out of work. Too many banks are bloodied.

Still, the prospect that the government is preparing to wade in deep - perhaps sparing families from foreclosure and banks from insolvency - has muted talk of the most dire possibilities: a severe shortage of credit that would crimp the availability of finance for many years, effectively halting economic growth, both in the United States and around the globe.

The risk of ending up like Japan, with 10 years of stagnation, is now much lessened. The recession train has left the station, but it's going to be 18 months instead of five years.

If the plan works, it will attack the central cause of American economic distress - the continued plunge in housing prices. If banks resumed lending more liberally, mortgages would become more readily available. That would give more people the wherewithal to buy homes, lifting housing prices or at least preventing them from falling further. This would prevent more mortgage-linked investments from going bad, further easing the strain on banks. As a result, the current downward spiral would end and start heading up.

For many Americans, the events that have transfixed and horrified Wall Street in recent days - the disintegration of supposedly impregnable institutions, government bailouts with 11-figure price tags - have been less stunning than inscrutable. The headlines proclaim that the taxpayer now owns the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, along with the liabilities of a mysterious colossus called the American Insurance Group, which, as it happens, insures against corporate defaults. Much like the human appendix, these were organs whose existence was only dimly evident to many until the pain began.

And yet these institutions are deeply intertwined with the American economy. When the financial system is in danger, it stops investing and lending, depriving ordinary people of financing for homes, cars and education. Businesses cannot borrow to start and expand.


4. Are there ways to protect oneself and secure your current assets?

Money at the moment is tight; many non-bank lenders are under stress and are rationing credit because they are finding it hard to raise more money. In times like these there are three main things you can do to protect yourself:

    1. Consolidate your cash

    You should consider lowering your debt and consolidating your cash to create a reserve to make sure that you a) don’t run out of cash to cover your interest repayments and b) are available to move quickly and take advantage of opportunities that will start to appear in the market.”


    2. Diversify your debt

    Diversify your debt with different lenders to keep your single debt exposure low with each lender. This is to protect you from being monitored by lenders you are over exposed to if times get worse.

    3. Get the right advice

    All mortgage brokers provide you with at least the following: work out how much you can borrow, select the right product from the right lender for you, lodge the application for approval, and help you to settle the mortgage.

    A quality investor focused mortgage broker can also help you:
    • Define your finance strategy for your portfolio;
    • Work out your future potential capacity;
    • Manage lender’s risk so that you can avoid loans being recalled during bad times;
    • Select the right order of lenders for your growth;
    • Set up your finance for taxation and asset protection purpose;
    • Provide you lending criteria to help select better quality properties;
    • Inform you on lending potentials on each property you want to purchase;
    • Update you on the lender’s attitude towards the property you want to purchase;
    • Update you regularly on what is new in the finance market to help you grow your portfolio;
    • Point you to the right direction for help in areas of investment taxation, asset protection;
    • Assist you with knowledge and experience in property related areas suchas property selection, renovation and development;
    • Be an unemotional reference for your investment decision;
    • Calm you down when you’re too excited, cheer you up when you are down;
    • Help you develop a better financial management system.
    With the market the way it is at the moment, now it is even more important that you are getting the right advice from people that have the right experience.
5. What should people do with their money?

Money market mutual fund accounts are considered a safe place to keep your cash and they have always lived up to that in the past even though they are not guaranteed by the FDIC. The Reserve Prime Money Market Fund broke the buck this week-meaning that its net asset value fell below $1.00 a share. Most institutions will come out of pocket to keep their money market accounts from breaking the buck because it would hurt their brand and their business too much if they had a money market fund failure. Fidelity and Vanguard are producing public reports on the holdings in their money market funds. Call or go online to the institution that holds your money market mutual fund account and see what they are saying or not saying about their funds holdings.

If you own a checking, savings, or certificate of deposit, you should make sure that you are insured by the FDIC. The FDIC insures up to a $100,000 per financial institution, per-person. A joint account that holds less that $200,000 in checking, savings, or Certificate of Deposits at an FDIC-insured institution would be insured. Call and check where you stand. That phone call could save you a lot of grief.

I always believe in sticking to your long term financial plan and remaining patient amidst the storm is the best course of action of anyone. But there are some mutual funds that have high exposure to Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merrill, and the like. Obviously the Neuberger Berman funds are at risk since they were owned by Lehman Brothers and are up for sale. Current investors will have to take a close look at how the new management will affect their holdings.

Review your funds to see how much you are exposed to these and other institutions and make your decision to stay or sell based on that. Remember, too, that there are tax consequences when you sell.

Lackluster stock market returns can't continue forever. The market has a history of posting gains after periods of losses. The long boom of the 1980s and 1990s, for example, followed another lost decade between 1972 and 1982. So you shouldn't give up on investing in the stock market. In fact, it's probably a better time to invest than anytime in years. Just be careful to stay diversified. No one can predict what sector or style will do well in any one year so keep your money spread out, but keeping adding to your portfolio.

It's important to do what you need to do to protect your assets. Get some support by making an appointment with your Financial Advisor or a Financial Coach to review your holdings and voice your feelings. But no matter what you do, you cannot bring your risk down to zero. You are always taking some amount of risk and that means you will always have the potential to lose money. Most millionaires have lost money time and time again, and I am sure you will, too, at some point in your life. The point is to do what you can so that even when you lose money, it doesn't wash you away. A bit of a loss won't keep you from food, shelter, or a smile on your face.


6. What does the credit crunch mean for job growth?

The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, warned that the sharp rise in the cost of short-term credit, and the corresponding difficulty that companies and individuals face if they want to obtain a loan, pose “a direct threat to economic growth.” Just as important for most Americans is the threat to their jobs. What does the credit crunch mean for job growth? Is your job in jeopardy?

This financial crisis is likely to threaten middle- and upper-income jobs to a greater extent than has been the case in past recessions.

There is little doubt that the crisis has already hurt job growth. And the unemployment rate is likely to rise further — and remain high for a considerable period after the financial crisis subsides and economic growth resumes.

Obviously, jobs in the banking, finance, construction and residential real estate sectors will take a direct hit because the problem started with a bubble in home prices. But the damage is likely to spread to other sectors. Industries that rely on customers who use credit to buy their goods are especially vulnerable. Thus jobs in durable goods manufacturing — such as autos, heavy household appliances and business equipment — are likely to be hit hard.

Historically, most downturns have hit the least skilled the hardest, as employers hold on to workers with unique skills who would be expensive to replace. This downturn, however, is likely to be more democratic than the norm because of the severity of the credit crunch. Research indicates that employers hire relatively more skilled workers when they invest in new plant and equipment, especially high-tech information and computing equipment (the so-called “capital-skill complementarity” hypothesis). If funds for investment are not available because of the financial crisis, however, companies will hire fewer skilled workers.

Consistent with this prediction, initial signs indicate that the employment shock has been felt more by college graduates than by those with a high school degree or less. The seasonally adjusted share of college graduates who are employed fell by 1.6 percentage points from March to August 2008, while the share of high school graduates and high school dropouts employed rose by 0.6 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively.

What does this mean for you? Even in the best of times the United States labor market is highly volatile, with millions of jobs being created and destroyed each month. But just because your job may have been safe in past downturns does not mean it will be secure this time. Key questions you should ask are: Does your company need investment funds to upgrade plant and equipment to compete with other companies? Do your customers rely mainly on credit to buy your product or service? Do you do business with companies that are hard hit by the financial crisis? If your answers to these questions are yes, your job is more likely to be at risk.


7. Would a temporary provision in the bankruptcy code, allowing people with toxic
mortgages to get their loans rewritten or pursued to foreclosure, be a cheaper
and better alternative?


The biggest unknown is whether the government’s pledge to help homeowners at risk of losing their homes will be any more effective than past efforts to slow the pace of defaults and foreclosures. Until that tide begins to turn, the housing market will continue to be bloated with big inventories of bank-owned houses put back on the market at fire-sale prices. That puts downward pressure on all home prices. And until home prices stabilize, it’s impossible to assign a value to the troubled investments at the heart of Wall Street's problems.

Under the plan, the government is promising to work with companies collecting mortgage payments to encourage them to accept lower payments from troubled homeowners. Treasury officials say they think they can use the leverage the government will gain once it owns troubled mortgage-backed securities. But that promise may be fundamentally flawed.

The government's basic plan is to buy just the worst securities in huge mortgage pools, which won't give the Treasury control over all the mortgages in that pool.

The problem that has stalled foreclosure relief efforts to date is rooted in how these mortgage-backed investments are structured. By pooling hundreds of mortgages in a separate entity, and then using the payment stream to back multiple classes — or tranches — of investments, Wall Street’s alchemy turned risky subprime borrowers into Triple-A rated safe investments.

To do so, Wall Street bankers assigned different prices, and different levels of risk, to those tranches, creating a so-called "waterfall.” The current mortgage default rate of about 9 percent means only the investors at the bottom of the waterfall are getting wiped out. The problem is that until the mortgage default rate begins to fall, no one knows how far up the waterfall investors will be hurt.

For investors higher up the ladder, there is no incentive to accept lower interest rates.

Treasury officials Sunday night said they expect the bailout fund may be used to buy up mortgages directly, or buy entire pools of mortgages. But after nearly a year of prodding lenders and services to rewrite loan terms voluntarily, it remains to be seen how effective the Treasury will be in its efforts to — in the legislation language — “encourage” loan servicers to “minimize foreclosures.”

For the past year, many House Democrats have been urging that the process of rewriting unsustainable loans be turned over to bankruptcy judges. That proposal was hotly debated again during the whirlwind negotiations of the past week.

Opponents — including The White House and some Republicans — argued that forcing lenders and investors to accept such bankruptcy “cramdowns” would only make matters worse. They argue that lenders would be leery of extending new credit if borrowers could go to court to have terms changed. That would make mortgages more costly and more difficult to get, worsening the housing crisis, say opponents.

Supporters of the bankruptcy law change argue that voluntary efforts to work out affordable loan terms — including the White House’s highly touted Hope Now Alliance — just haven’t worked. They also note that the bankruptcy process applies to other forms of debt that are still in relatively good supply.

In any case, unless anticipated future loan “resets” to unaffordable payments can be diffused, the pace of mortgage defaults and home foreclosures likely will be difficult to contain

8. Is this a good time to buy a home?

Agents, lenders and others in the real-estate industry have been saying that for so long, it's become tired. Some buyers are reluctant to commit, hoping for a lower price, a better interest rate -- maybe a more secure job in a better economy because God knows this one is nothing to write home about. Oh, there may be more jobs, but are they jobs that pay living wages?

The industry has a theory (hint: bad press) about why some buyers are so reluctant. But it's not that simple, folks. If every media outlet in the world reported tomorrow that "it's a great time to buy," the intelligent people would ask for proof. Many would not get it.

For years, the housing market was booming. The industry was in fat city; sellers were benefiting from multiple offers because of high demand for homes and a low supply of them. Lenders, with lots of creative financing, were handing out mortgages to everyone and his sister, so pretty much anyone could buy a home. Agents were making good money.

In short, there wasn't a whole lot of bad news about real estate (save for those who rightly foretold of problems because of all those subprime, no-doc and low-doc loans, but few people listened to them).

Now real estate is troubled. And no number of positive stories is going to change that unless people see true signs of recovery. Guess what? They don't. No amount of lipstick is going to dress up this pig. (See? I'm up on current events!) That's a bit harsh: The industry isn't a pig. It's just troubled.

There are pros to buying now: With homes aplenty on the market (more than 16,000 in King County and more than 7,000 in Snohomish County), buyers have quite a selection to choose from. Rates are low and, since the government moved to take over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they've fallen.

The cons: Prices could go down. Maybe. Possibly.

A recent Redfin analysis in the Seattle area showed that most price reductions are less than 2 percent. As much as buyers want the best deal, sellers want to make as much money as they can. Those are polar opposites, folks. You can't have it both ways.

Is it worth gambling? I mean, if you find a house you want, why sit back and wait to see whether prices will go down? They could go up, you know. And mortgage rates could go up, too, which means the cost of that house would go up even more. And guess what? The house will appreciate (that's not a news flash), so you'll make money if you're not flipping (and you shouldn't be flipping).

 
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